Nordic Power Market

Outlook 2017 - 2045

Spring 2017, 28th edition

Available from Tuesday March 28th

Vøringfossen, norwegian waterfall

Key features Spring 2017 edition

  • Persistent strong growth in renewable power and muted consumption growth will induce a Nordic production surplus until nuclear power are closed down beyond 2040

  • Uncertainty about the future of Swedish nuclear power has arisen as the investment decision about mid-life upgrade for Ringhals 3 and 4 has been postponed, with potential significant power price impact

  • North Connect linking Norway and Scotland could come into operation much sooner than previously expected, also potentially impacting power prices significantly

  • The utilization of the Nordic-German interconnectors seem to have somewhat stabilized, but no solution to the German north-south bottleneck are in sight. Significant export limitations from the Nordic market to Germany is expected to prevail at least until 2025

  • Consumption growth losing some momentum. Is the expected growth in consumption from data storages about to materialize soon?

  • Our base case scenario is updated with new information regarding several important price drivers

  • Our global gas- and coal markets analyses are updated and power price impacts presented in our special Nena scenario

Report content

The long term report offers scenario analyses with an updated “Base case scenario” as well as the “Nena scenario” (using Nena forecasts for natural gas, coal and EUA prices).

Included are price forecasts for the Nordic System price and all Nordic area prices up until 2045, as well as price projections for Germany, France, UK, The Netherlands, Poland, Estonia, Russia, Latvia and Lithuania on annual resolution. The Nordic Power Outlook spring 2017 further includes a detailed annual supply and demand balance until 2045.

The analysis is available as pdf and paper versions, including a spreadsheet with all relevant calculations from the analysis.

The Nordic Power Outlook will be presented at our upcoming Nena Energy Session in Helsinki on May 18.

Joachim Jernæs holds presentation

Nordic power workshop

Nena offers a workshop at client premises or in the Nena office in Oslo where pre-agreed topics related to the Nordic power market are presented and discussed. For best use of a workshop Nena recommends to add the most recent “Electricity Certificates Outlook 2017-2045”. Use this opportunity to enhance your understanding of the market and to challenge Nena.

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Director of Sales and Marketing Arve Dahl Nielsen

Arve Dahl Nielsen

Director of Sales and Marketing

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Master of Science Degree & Business from NHH, Bergen. CEMS Masters Degree from NHH and Universitá L. Bocconi, Milan. Certified Power Market Analyst from NHH. Earlier experience as portfolio manager and trader at Norsk Hydro, and NOS Clearing within sales and business development.
Employed since September 2010.

+47 22 31 41 11

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Why not add a long term analysis on El-cert?

Nena launches updated long term report on Electricity Certificates until 2045 on April 5th. We highly recommend to include this report as the elcert and power markets are strongly interlinked.