Nordic Power Market

Outlook 2018 - 2045

Spring 2018, 30th edition

Available from Thursday March 15th

Glacier seen from bottom of valley

Key features Spring 2018 edition

  • Industrial output has increased notably during this winter, mainly a result of a wide industrial upturn. Main contributors to future growth are an electrification of the transportation sector and commissioning of large scale data storages. We discuss their impact going forward

  • A boom in Nordic onshore wind power investments will lead to the Nordic production surplus growing faster than earlier expected. The Nordic production surplus will remain significant until Swedish nuclear power will be phased out from early 2040s

  • The Nordic renewable production potential is vast, with a substantial part available at a relatively low cost. The Long Run Marginal Cost of onshore wind power has a great impact on future Nordic power prices

  • Traditional baseload capacity will be replaced with intermittent production capacity in Continental Europe. We discuss the flexibility challenge ahead, and following impact on the markets

  • Global gas- and coal market analyses are updated along with our long-term EUA price forecast and implemented in our special Nena scenario

  • Are global interest rates on their way up? In a special chapter we analyze the impact on Nordic electricity prices as a function of increasing long-term interest rates

Report content

The long term report offers scenario analyses with an updated “Base case scenario” as well as the “Nena scenario” (using Nena forecasts for natural gas, coal and EUA prices).

Included are price forecasts for the Nordic System price and all Nordic area prices up until 2045, as well as price projections for Germany, France, UK, The Netherlands, Poland, Estonia, Russia, Latvia and Lithuania on annual resolution. The Nordic Power Outlook spring 2018 further includes a detailed annual supply and demand balance until 2045.

The analysis is available as pdf and paper versions, including a spreadsheet with all relevant calculations from the analysis.

Joachim Jernæs holds presentation

Nordic power workshop

Nena offers a workshop at client premises or in the Nena office in Oslo where pre-agreed topics related to the Nordic power market are presented and discussed. For best use of a workshop Nena recommends to add the most recent “Electricity Certificates Outlook 2018-2045”. Use this opportunity to enhance your understanding of the market and to challenge Nena.

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Why not add a long term analysis on El-cert?

Nena launches updated long term report on Electricity Certificates until 2045 on March 20th. We highly recommend to include this report as the elcert and power markets are strongly interlinked.