Electricity Certificates

Outlook 2019 - 2045

Fall 2019, 18th edition

Available from November 5th

Snowy windmill in the sunset

Key points Fall 2018 edition

  • The elcertificate goal of 46.4 TWh new renewable production from 2012 to 2030 will be reached soon. Without the risk of a shortage of elcertificates prior to the March-20 compliance, mainly is caused by a changed Swedish quota curve, and the possibility of a Swedish volume-based stop mechanism ahead of the 2030 goal, the elcertificate price would have been close to zero

  • We find the probability for an elcertificate shortage in the period before the March-20 compliance to be low. We assess its latest probability and potential price effect next few years through our weather scenario analysis

  • We provide a complete overview of all projects under development, and expectation to which projects are part of the optimal solution to the goal

  • The certificates surplus will increase tremendously from 2020. How will it affect prices – and will the Swedish government amend the quotas to prevent the surplus from becoming far too big?

  • Will the Swedish government include a volume-based stop mechanism ahead of the 2030 goal and how will that affect elcertificate prices?

  • We provide elcertificate price sensitivities to changes in interest rates, CAPEX and OPEX cost and load hours (FLH)

  • What is really the onshore wind power potential in Norway and Sweden? We provide a complete overview of more than 100 TWh with specific valuation details on 400 onshore wind power projects under development

Report Content

  • Comprehensive database with detailed overview of more than 100 TWh potential onshore wind projects pending or with approval

  • Complete overview of all large projects under construction as well as the expected onshore wind, large hydro, bio and wind power projects to take investment decision

  • Expected certificate price development under various scenarios: weather risk, technological, financial and political risk

  • Merit order overview of investments from 2018 to 2030

  • Complete monthly and annual balance up to 2045 for all technologies, with according phase-out and accumulate balance development

The analysis is available as pdf and paper versions, including a spreadsheet with all relevant calculations from the analysis.

Joachim Jernæs holds presentation

El-cert workshop

Nena offers a workshop at client premises or in the Nena office in Oslo where pre-agreed topics related to the el-cert market are presented and discussed. For best use of a workshop Nena recommends to add the most recent “Nordic Power Outlook 2019-2045”. Use this opportunity to enhance your understanding of the market and to challenge Nena.

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Why not add a long term analysis on Nordic power?

Nena launches updated long term report on Nordic Power Outlook until 2045 on October 24th. We highly recommend to include this report as the elcert and power markets are strongly interlinked.