Electricity Certificates

Outlook 2018 - 2045

Fall 2017, 16th edition

Available from Wednesday October 25th

Windmills over artic plains

Key points fall 2017 edition

  • Will the elcert price continue to fall on persistent investments and technological development?

  • Far too many projects than the market can room are pending investment decision. Already, more than 31 TWh is part of the goal. Which projects have really made final investment decision, and which are around the corner? We provide a complete up-to-date status on the goal

  • The surplus will increase substantially from 2020. Which effect will a rapidly increasing surplus have?

  • The certificate surplus will continue to decline until 2020. Are there still any risk of a short-squeeze?

  • We assess the elcert price development in various alternative scenarios

Report Content

  • Comprehensive database with detailed overview of more than 100 TWh potential onshore wind projects pending or with approval

  • Complete overview of all large projects under construction as well as the expected onshore wind, large hydro, bio and wind power projects to take investment decision

  • Expected certificate price development under various scenarios: weather risk, technological, financial and political risk

  • New quotas from 2022 and effects on the certificate balance

  • Merit order overview of investments from 2017 to 2020 (2030)

  • Complete monthly and annual balance from 2012 up to 2045 for all technologies, with according phase-out and accumulate balance development

The analysis is available as pdf and paper versions, including a spreadsheet with all relevant calculations from the analysis.

Joachim Jernæs holds presentation

El-cert workshop

Nena offers a workshop at client premises or in the Nena office in Oslo where pre-agreed topics related to the el-cert market are presented and discussed. For best use of a workshop Nena recommends to add the most recent “Nordic Power Outlook 2018-2045”. Use this opportunity to enhance your understanding of the market and to challenge Nena.

Request an offer

Yes, please send me an offer for:


Why not add a long term analysis on Nordic power?

Nena launches updated long term report on Nordic Power Outlook until 2045 on October 19th. We highly recommend to include this report as the elcert and power markets are strongly interlinked.