ELECTRICITY CERTIFICATES OUTLOOK

Electricity Certificates

Outlook 2019 - 2045

Spring 2019, 19th edition

Available from April 3rd

Windmills over farmland

Key points Spring 2019 edition

  • The regulators have recommended to introduce a Swedish date stop in 2030, meaning that new Swedish renewable production will receive elcertificates if they start operating before end of 2030. The recommendation was the most bearish possible regarding impact on elcertificate price expectations. We discuss the impact of the recommendation and possible changes made before final approval spring 2019

  • The elcertificate goal of 46.4 TWh new renewable production from 2012 to 2030 will be reached by a wide margin. Without the low probability of a shortage of elcertificates prior to the March-20 compliance, the elcertificate price would have been very low

  • We find the probability for an elcertificate shortage in the period before the March-20 compliance to be low. We assess its latest probability and potential price effect next few years through our weather scenario analysis

  • The Norwegian regulator NVE has adopted amendments to the regulations on control of network operations. We discuss how this can impact the cost of, and investments in, wind power in Norway

  • We provide elcertificate price sensitivities to changes in interest rates, CAPEX and OPEX cost and load hours (FLH)

  • We provide a complete overview of all projects under development

  • What is really the onshore wind power potential in Norway and Sweden? We provide a complete overview of more than 100 TWh with specific valuation details on 400 onshore wind power projects under development

Report Content

  • Comprehensive database with detailed overview of more than 100 TWh potential onshore wind projects pending or with approval

  • Complete overview of all large projects under construction as well as the expected onshore wind, large hydro, bio and wind power projects to take investment decision

  • Expected certificate price development under various scenarios: weather risk, technological, financial and political risk

  • Merit order overview of investments from 2019 to 2030

  • Complete monthly and annual balance up to 2045 for all technologies, with according phase-out and accumulate balance development


The analysis is available as pdf and paper versions, including a spreadsheet with all relevant calculations from the analysis.

Chief analyst Sigbjørn Seland holds presentation

El-cert workshop

Nena offers a workshop at client premises or in the Nena office in Oslo where pre-agreed topics related to the el-cert market are presented and discussed. For best use of a workshop Nena recommends to add the most recent “Nordic Power Outlook 2019-2045”. Use this opportunity to enhance your understanding of the market and to challenge Nena.


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NORDIC POWER OUTLOOK

Why not add a long term analysis on Nordic power?

Nena launches updated long term report on Nordic Power Outlook until 2045 on March 20th. We highly recommend to include this report as the elcert and power markets are strongly interlinked.