ELECTRICITY CERTIFICATES OUTLOOK

Electricity Certificates

Outlook 2018 - 2045

Spring 2018, 17th edition

Available from Tuesday March 20th

Windmills by mountain lake

Key points Spring 2018 edition

  • We observe an increased probability for a certificate shortage during 2019. We assess its latest probability and potential price effect next few years through our weather scenario analysis

  • Elcert prices beyond March-20 are at all-time lows. Will prices continue to decline, and will any renewable project be profitable next few years? We provide a complete overview of all projects under development, and expectation to which projects that are part of the optimal solution to the goal

  • The certificates surplus will increase tremendously from 2020. How will it affect prices – and will the Swedish government amend the quotas to prevent the surplus from becoming far too big?

  • Will the Swedish government include a volume-based stop mechanism ahead of the 2030 goal?

  • Are interest rates on the rise? We assess their potential impact on elcert prices and onshore wind power valuation

  • To what extent does PPAs impact elcert prices? We discuss potential impact to the certificate market going forward

  • What is really the onshore wind power potential in Norway and Sweden? We provide a complete overview of more than 100 TWh with specific valuation details on 400 onshore wind power projects under development

Report Content

  • Comprehensive database with detailed overview of more than 100 TWh potential onshore wind projects pending or with approval

  • Complete overview of all large projects under construction as well as the expected onshore wind, large hydro, bio and wind power projects to take investment decision

  • Expected certificate price development under various scenarios: weather risk, technological, financial and political risk

  • New quotas from 2021 and effects on the certificate balance

  • Merit order overview of investments from 2018 to 2030

  • Complete monthly and annual balance up to 2045 for all technologies, with according phase-out and accumulate balance development


The analysis is available as pdf and paper versions, including a spreadsheet with all relevant calculations from the analysis.

Joachim Jernæs holds presentation

El-cert workshop

Nena offers a workshop at client premises or in the Nena office in Oslo where pre-agreed topics related to the el-cert market are presented and discussed. For best use of a workshop Nena recommends to add the most recent “Nordic Power Outlook 2018-2045”. Use this opportunity to enhance your understanding of the market and to challenge Nena.


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NORDIC POWER OUTLOOK

Why not add a long term analysis on Nordic power?

Nena launches updated long term report on Nordic Power Outlook until 2045 on March 15th. We highly recommend to include this report as the elcert and power markets are strongly interlinked.