Key discussions for the fall 2023 edition

• Cost and Technology Assessment
  We conduct an in-depth evaluation of technology advancements and estimate current and future costs associated with wind and solar power, nuclear power, energy storage solutions, and hydrogen technologies. Our analysis encompasses Long Run Marginal Costs (LRMC) development for over 30 technologies across four distinct scenarios spanning from 2023 to 2050. Additionally, we provide LRMC indices for other European regions with differing natural conditions.

• Renewable Potential and Investments
  Our report delves into the potential and anticipated investments in the Nordic region, extending through 2050. We assess the outlook for hydropower, wind power, solar photovoltaics (PV), Bio Combined Heat and Power (CHP), nuclear power, energy storage technologies, and hydrogen. While the fundamental drivers for renewable energy remain robust, profitability has become increasingly challenging. Many wind and solar power projects face delays or cancellations due to local resistance. Consequently, expected green investments have been adjusted downward compared to previous analyses. Additionally, we scrutinize the prospects for a potential growth phase in nuclear power, even within the Nordic region, with a focus on profitability.

• Towards a Climate-Neutral Europe by 2050
  We explore the pivotal role that emission reduction targets play in shaping investments within the European energy system. Our report includes a comprehensive review of the European Union's climate and energy policies, as well as relevant regulations. This encompasses an examination of the proposed EU taxonomy, which has a significant impact on the classification of sustainable investments.

• EU Carbon Market Insights
  While governmental support is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality, the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is a central pillar. We provide insights into the EUA (European Union Allowance) market and present a EUA price projection that aligns with the long-term objective of achieving net-zero emissions.

• Nordic Renewable Energy Policy Review
  We conduct a thorough assessment of current renewable energy policies in the Nordic region. Additionally, we analyze the likelihood of new political initiatives emerging that will shape the renewable energy landscape leading up to 2050.

Available for pre-purchase now

Key insights

What does the outlook offer?
Renewable cost development, potential, and expected investments in Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark, and Baltics until 2050. The analysis is available in pdf and paper versions, including a spreadsheet with all relevant calculations from the analysis.

Does it discuss energy storage technologies?
The report discusses relevant energy storage technologies to enable the extensive development of renewable energy.

Will it also include framework conditions in the Nordic region and emissions scenario?
The report includes various framework conditions in the Nordic region – addressing the long-term targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the EU. Analysis of the EU ETS with a possible emissions scenario all the way to 2050 and a detailed analysis of the Electricity Certificates market.

Report content

Fall 2023, 28th edition (2023 – 2050). Renewable cost development, potential, and expected investments in Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, and Baltics until 2050.

The Nordic Renewables Outlook contains 75 pages of:

• Detailed SRMC and LRMC calculation for all technologies likely to play a significant part in the future Nordic electricity system, including sensitivity analysis

• Wind and solar power capture shares in the Nordic price areas until 2050

• Annual and monthly elcert balance until 2035

• And much more

  Release date: OCTOBER 19^th, 2023