ELECTRICITY CERTIFICATES OUTLOOK

Electricity Certificates

Outlook 2017 - 2045

Spring 2017, 15th edition

Available from Wednesday April 5th

Windmills over artic plains

Key points Spring 2017 edition

  • Elcert prices have plunged to all-time lows. Is this temporary, or will prices stay low for a long time?

  • The governments are likely to confirm the 18 TWh market-expansion during spring 2017. How will the suggested quota curve affect prices and investments?

  • Hundreds of renewable projects in Sweden and Norway are pending investment decision. Which investors will be able to invest, and which will be forced to cancel or postpone their projects? We provide an updated overview of all projects part of the optimal solution to the goal

  • What is the actual status of the goal? We provide the latest status with an updated overview of all projects under construction and with final investment decision

  • Bio CHP and hydro power investments in Sweden and Norway will take place towards and after 2020. Which impact will they have for onshore wind power investments?

  • How low can prices go - and what is the upside next years? How will power prices affect elcert prices over time? We run a number of scenarios

  • Is weather-risk relevant for certificate pricing? We run a number of weather scenarios with according price development

Report Content

  • Comprehensive database with detailed overview of more than 100 TWh potential onshore wind projects pending or with approval

  • Complete overview of all large projects under construction as well as the expected onshore wind, large hydro, bio and wind power projects to take investment decision

  • Expected certificate price development under various scenarios: weather risk, technological and political risk

  • New quotas from 2018 and effects on the certificate balance

  • Merit order overview of investments from 2017 to 2020 (2030)

  • Complete monthly and annual balance from 2012 up to 2045 for all technologies, with according phase-out and accumulate balance development


The analysis is available as pdf and paper versions, including a spreadsheet with all relevant calculations from the analysis.

Joachim Jernæs holds presentation

El-cert workshop

Nena offers a workshop at client premises or in the Nena office in Oslo where pre-agreed topics related to the el-cert market are presented and discussed. For best use of a workshop Nena recommends to add the most recent “Nordic Power Outlook 2017-2045”. Use this opportunity to enhance your understanding of the market and to challenge Nena.


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Director of Sales and Marketing Arve Dahl Nielsen

Arve Dahl Nielsen

Director of Sales and Marketing

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Master of Science Degree & Business from NHH, Bergen. CEMS Masters Degree from NHH and Universitá L. Bocconi, Milan. Certified Power Market Analyst from NHH. Earlier experience as portfolio manager and trader at Norsk Hydro, and NOS Clearing within sales and business development.
Employed since September 2010.

+47 22 31 41 11

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NORDIC POWER OUTLOOK

Why not add a long term analysis on Nordic power?

Nena launches updated long term report on Nordic Power Outlook until 2045 on March 28th. We highly recommend to include this report as the elcert and power markets are strongly interlinked.