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NORDIC – Q1 jumps EUR 3 on drier forecasts

(Montel) Nordic power futures rose on Tuesday, with the Q1 contract rising more than EUR 3, as the latest weather forecasts showed a drier outlook for November.

The Q1 contract was last seen up EUR 3.25 at EUR 70.90/MWh, while November was EUR 1.10 higher at EUR 70/MWh and the Cal 22 gained EUR 1.27 at EUR 39.80/MWh on the Nasdaq Commodities exchange.

“Today’s rise is related to the forecasts showing less precipitation in 8-9 days… with relatively dry weather from the start of November," said Sigbjørn Seland, chief analyst at StormGeo.

Precipitation levels would fall below average from 4 November, though over the next 10 days 10-11.7 TWh of potential hydropower generation was expected – though this was pegged at 13-16 TWh yesterday – still significantly above the seasonal average of 7.2 TWh, according to data from Montel’s Energy Quantified. 

As a result, the hydrological balance – a measure of reserves stored in reservoirs, snow and soil – was set to strengthen from a deficit of 8.3 TWh below normal currently to 5.6 TWh below in the coming two weeks, EQ data showed.

Germany provides upside

Nordic power was also being supported by the German power market, Seland said, pointing at a current spread in excess of EUR 100 between the two markets.

The German front month was last seen trading up EUR 5.08 at EUR 196.50/MWh, while Q1 power was EUR 2.06 higher at EUR 184.25/MWh. 

Closer in, Seland predicted the Nordic system price for Wednesday would roughly halve from the current EUR 65.85/MWh, on higher wind supply.     

Montel’s AI-based model pegged Wednesday’s system price at EUR 27.80/MWh.    

Average Nordic wind power output was set to rise from 7.4 GW currently to 11.9 GW on Wednesday, while power consumption should remain flat at around 45.4-45.6 GW, according to EQ.



Reporting By:
Wilhelm Zakrisson
11:00, Tuesday, 26 October 2021