Nordic Power Market

Outlook 2018 - 2045

Fall 2017, 29th edition

Available from Thursday October 19th

Vøringfossen, norwegian waterfall

Key features Fall 2017 edition

  • Persistent strong growth in renewable power will induce a Nordic production surplus until nuclear plants are decommissioned after 2040

  • Consumption growth is muted, but will new consumption sectors like road transport and data storages at some point bring back strong growth in the total Nordic electricity consumption?

  • The agreement between Tenne T and Energinet Denmark to increase minimum available hourly capacity from DK1 to Germany has significant price impact for the next 10 years

  • Will Germany accelerate phase-out of lignite and hard coal, and will France reach its goal of reduced nuclear dependency? Traditional baseload capacity will be replaced by intermittent production capacity in Continental Europe. We discuss the flexibility challenge ahead and impact on the markets

  • Base case scenario is updated with new information regarding all relevant price drivers

  • Global gas- and coal market analyses are updated along with our long-term EUA price forecast and implemented in our special Nena scenario

Report content

The long term report offers scenario analyses with an updated “Base case scenario” as well as the “Nena scenario” (using Nena forecasts for natural gas, coal and EUA prices).

Included are price forecasts for the Nordic System price and all Nordic area prices up until 2045, as well as price projections for Germany, France, UK, The Netherlands, Poland, Estonia, Russia, Latvia and Lithuania on annual resolution. The Nordic Power Outlook fall 2017 further includes a detailed annual supply and demand balance until 2045.

The analysis is available as pdf and paper versions, including a spreadsheet with all relevant calculations from the analysis.

The report will be presented to buyers at the upcoming Nena Energy Session in Oslo November 1st 2017.

Joachim Jernæs holds presentation

Nordic power workshop

Nena offers a workshop at client premises or in the Nena office in Oslo where pre-agreed topics related to the Nordic power market are presented and discussed. For best use of a workshop Nena recommends to add the most recent “Electricity Certificates Outlook 2018-2045”. Use this opportunity to enhance your understanding of the market and to challenge Nena.

Request an offer

Yes, please send me an offer for:


Why not add a long term analysis on El-cert?

Nena launches updated long term report on Electricity Certificates until 2045 on October 25th. We highly recommend to include this report as the elcert and power markets are strongly interlinked.