Nena News

GERMAN – Front week jumps 4% on low wind, cold outlook

(Montel) German power week-ahead prices rose more than 4% on Friday, buoyed by forecasts showing cold temperatures and low wind production.

The baseload front-week contract rose by EUR 1.75/MWh from the previous day’s close to EUR 38.25/MWh, while the equivalent peakload contract traded EUR 2 higher at EUR 48/MWh.

One Germany-based analyst said peakload spot prices could rise to around EUR 60/MWh next week – the highest in 10 months – due to an expected drop in temperatures in France and Germany and a rise in demand for power for heating.

“The French market could get very tight, and if Germany has to export power to France, and German wind power production gets very low – as is expected on Thursday and Friday – then I think we could see peak prices of around EUR 60/MWh in both Germany and France,” he said.

Also, he said there were not many gas plants in German that could operate with wholesale prices below EUR 50/MWh.

The last time the Phelix spot price for peakload exceeded EUR 60/MWh was on 9 December last year.

The spot settlement for peakload this Thursday, at EUR 55.92/MWh, was the highest since 11 February.

Cool outlook, low wind
Temperatures in Germany are forecast to fall from an average of 12C currently to 4.9C by next Thursday, almost 6C below the seasonal norm, according to data from Oslo-based analysis firmNena.

Some parts of Germany will also see this winter’s first snowfall next week, according to meteorologist Alexander Lehmann.

Prices for next week have also been pushed higher by a large downward revision in wind power production forecasts, said Nena analyst Sigurd Lie.

German wind output is forecast to average 3.8 GW until Sunday next week, and less than 0.4 GW next Friday, Nena data showed.

Further out, the benchmark Cal 16 baseload contract last traded up EUR 0.04 from Thursday’s close, at EUR 29.30/MWh.


Reporting by:
Iselin Rønningsbakk
10:51, Friday, 9 October 2015