Analyst dismisses TSO forecast of Norway power deficit

(Montel) Norway’s power consumption would have to increase by almost 30 TWh over the next three years for it to end up with a power deficit, said a leading Storm Geo analyst, dismissing TSO forecasts.

“[TSO] Statnett has said that Norway is heading towards a power deficit, perhaps as soon as 2026. We disagree. In 2026, we will have around 158 TWh of power production. Consumption is currently around 130 TWh,” Storm Geo chief analyst Sigbjorn Seland said at a conference in Oslo hosted by financial services firm Pareto.

Statnett CEO Hilde Tonne repeated at the conference a previous forecast that Norway would become a net power importer from 2026 or 2027.

But for this to happen, power consumption would need to increase by almost 30 TWh up to 2027, and that was “pretty huge”, Seland said.

Electricity use fell over the last year as both industry and households reacted to higher prices. Norway’s total consumption was 131.5 TWh in 2022, according to Nord Pool data, down from 138.9 TWh a year earlier.

StormGeo expects Norway’s net power exports this year to be around 19 TWh, up from around 13 TWh last year.

Nuclear off the table

Statnett’s forecasts were based on industry applications to connect future projects to the grid, but these may not transpire, Seland said.

“First, you have to build more wind and solar power to bring power prices down and then you will see power consumption increase,” he said.

However, Seland dismissed talk of new nuclear reactors in the Nordic region, noting that at a cost of around EUR 60/MWh to build, they were more expensive than solar and wind.

But it was profitable to let existing nuclear plants remain in operation for as long as possible, he added.

In January, the Swedish government kicked off a three-month public consultation on plans to allow new nuclear reactors in the country, following up on pledges made in last autumn’s general election campaign.

Meanwhile, Norway’s opposition Conservative and Progress parties have said the country should investigate the conditions for building its first nuclear reactors.

Reporting by:

Kjersti Dalfest

kjersti@montelnews.com

11:22, Wednesday, 1 March 2023

Editing by:

Roger Fry

roger@montelnews.com

11:22, Wednesday, 1 March 2023

Editing by:

Ciara Cunnane

ciara.cunnane@montelnews.com

11:22, Wednesday, 1 March 2023