Nena News

GERMAN – Day-ahead peak soars 60% on low solar, wind

(Montel) Friday prices rose for the third consecutive trading day on Thursday morning, soaring almost 60%, or nearly EUR 9, as forecasts confirmed power production from solar and wind plants in the country will be very low.

Baseload for Friday – a public holiday in Germany and most of Europe – last changed hands at EUR 23.25/MWh at one broker, up EUR 2.25 on the day, while peakload traded up EUR 8.50 at EUR 23.25/MWh.

On Monday, the contract closed at just EUR 12/MWh for base and EUR 9.25/MWh for peak and prices have risen every day since in line with downward revisions in renewables forecasts.

“There will be very little wind and solar power production tomorrow and many conventional power plants will probably also be shutdown for the long weekend,” a Germany-based trader said, explaining the price rise.

Prices have risen because of low expected renewables output but “consumption all over Europe will be low tomorrow [due to the 1 May public holiday] and many places will see a lot of rain, so there is no doubt that the price will be low”, said analyst Sigurd Lie at Oslo-based Nena.

Solar and wind power plants are forecast to produce an average of 5.7 GW of electricity throughout the day, less than half of the 11.9 GW which is expected in the current session, according to data from analyst Nena.

Solar output is expected to peak at just 7.8 GW, down from a forecast 22.5 GW on Thursday, Nenadata showed.

Earlier, Vattenfall said it plans to shut down its Moorburg B hard coal-fired power plant (800 MW) from Friday to Sunday, while Steag said it has delayed the planned restart of its Bergkamen A coal plant (717 MW) to Sunday.

Windy Monday

Further out, week-ahead baseload last traded at EUR 28.50/MWh, down EUR 0.10, while the equivalent peakload contract was EUR 0.45 lower at EUR 34.50/MWh.

“Wind forecasts for next week have been revised higher and that probably explains the price decrease for the week-ahead contract,” Lie said.

The trader agreed, adding “it now looks like Monday will be particularly windy”.

Wind output is forecast to peak at almost 20 GW shortly before midday on Monday, according toNena.

Meanwhile, the benchmark Cal 16 baseload contract last changed hands up EUR 0.05 on the day at EUR 32.10/MWh.

 

Reporting by:
Iselin Rønningsbakk
iselin@montel.no
11:55, Thursday, 30 April 2015