GERMAN – Prompt rises on lower renewables forecasts
(Montel) German power prices for Friday and the weekend rose on Thursday morning amid a downward revision in the outlook for wind and solar generation, players told Montel.
Baseload for the day-ahead last changed hands at EUR 36.80/MWh at one broker, up by EUR 0.80 on the day, and more than EUR 2.50 higher than the Phelix spot settlement for Thursday. The weekend baseload contract was last seen up EUR 0.75 at EUR 21/MWh.
“The day-ahead has been increasing because solar power forecasts have been revised down, while the weekend is trading slightly higher now due to lower prognosis for wind power,” a Germany-based portfolio manager said.
In addition, outages at some conventional power plants have also provided some support to the weekend contract, the portfolio manager said.
Solar power production in Germany is forecast to peak at 12.7 GW around midday on Friday, down from an expected 25.5 GW in the current session, according to data from Oslo-based analysis firm Nena. On Wednesday, solar generation hit a new daily record peak at just over 25 GW.
Wind generation is expected to fall from an average of 5 GW throughout the day on Thursday to 3.8 GW on Friday, the data from Nena showed.
“Solar output is set to be a lot lower tomorrow than it will be today, and wind generation will also be lower, and that is offsetting the so-called Friday effect, with lower power demand going into the weekend,” said Nena analyst Sigurd Lie.
Weekend solar to soar
On Saturday and Sunday, solar output is forecast to peak at 24.7 GW and 28.2 GW, respectively, although wind production is expected to average around 3-5 GW.
In conventional generation, Vattenfall plans to shut down its Lippendorf S lignite-fired power plant (891 MW) for nine days from Friday at 23:00 CET. RWE extended an output reduction of 440 MW at its 915 MW lignite plant Niederaussem K by four days to Tuesday evening.
Further out, the front-month contract last changed hands down EUR 0.10 at EUR 28.50/MWh.
The portfolio manager said the move was likely related to recent low spot settlements caused by the high solar output, while solar output was generally higher in May than in April.
The benchmark Cal 16 baseload contract was last seen up EUR 0.09 at EUR 32/MWh.
Reporting by:
Iselin Rønningsbakk
iselin@montel.no
11:06, Thursday, 16 April 2015