(Montel) The front-week contract jumped EUR 2 on Thursday as weather forecasts suggested lower wind in the near term and on a delayed restart to the Philippsburg reactor.
Front-week baseload was last seen trading up EUR 2.32 at EUR 39.90/MWh on the EEX exchange – this week settled at EUR 30.63/MWh by comparison – while the front month opened at EUR 29.70/MWh – a high last seen 20 March – before dropping to EUR 29.40, a near 1% rise on the previous session's close of EUR 29.13/MWh.
Wind generation was expected to average 5,450 MW over the next nine-day period, with 6-7 April in particular set to see much lower output in peak hours than previously expected, according to forecasts from analyst Nena.
Market participants also attributed the rise partly to ENBW’s extension iof an outage at its Philippsburg 2 (1,402 MW) reactor by three weeks to 21 April, owing to faulty ventilation mountings.
“Short term the [front-month] contract made a large move upwards but seemed to reach a level where lots of people were willing to sell,” said a Germany-based trader, noting a convergence with the May contract – last seen trading at EUR 29/MWh – on account of “a bit more wind in the front weeks”.
Further out, the Cal 18 contract last traded down EUR 0.12 at EUR 29/MWh on the EEX exchange. On Wednesday it fell to as low as EUR 28.70/MWh before closing at EUR 29.17/MWh.
“The market is in a ‘wait and see’ moment,” said Diana Bacila, a coal analyst at Oslo-based Nena, referring to the pending reopening of three large Australian coal export hubs which are reported to have escaped any major damage resulting from cyclone Debbie but remain offline.
Coal conundrum
Coal – a major driver for front-year German power – has risen in the last few days on the back of the cyclone fallout but the front-year contract in the API 2 window was last seen down USD 1.20 at USD 64.50/t, while the Dec 17 EUA contract was down EUR 0.08 at EUR 4.68/t.
“Maybe the market upside risk to the API 2 from this disruption from Australia should remain in place… but maybe there are other drivers outweighing these impacts,” Bacila added, pointing to lower gas prices and milder temperatures ahead.
Over the next 10 days, Nena sees temperatures averaging 10.7C, 2.5C above the norm.
The EEX forecasts conventional power plant availability to 47.1 GW on Friday, remaining at the same levels day-on-day.