(Montel) The Nordic power system price for Tuesday surprisingly jumped EUR 2.61 to EUR 23.82/MWh amid tight nuclear and wind power supply, prompting an upward adjustment on the forward curve in afternoon trade.
The spot price, which settled EUR 1.12 above the last trade in the day-ahead contract, came despite unseasonably warm temperatures.
“The spot is lifted by the high prices in the peak consumption hours in the morning. This is a typical spring phenomenon, as there is little spare capacity available in the system even though the inflow into [hydropower] reservoirs is rising steeply [due to increasing snowmelt],” said analyst Sigbjørn Seland at Nena.
Low nuclear output, due to annual maintenance stops, as well as low wind power output also supported the spot, he said.
“Continental spot prices are also strengthening so we see high export from the Nordic region, which leads to a coupling of continental and Nordic prices during the morning peak hours,” Seland said, adding he expected spot prices to stay at current levels throughout the week.
The contract for Wednesday last traded at EUR 23/MWh, up EUR 2, on the Nasdaq Commodities exchange.
The forward market reversed early losses thanks to the buoyant spot price.
The front quarter contract last traded at EUR 20.55/MWh, up EUR 0.05, after hitting an intraday low of EUR 20.15/MWh earlier.
Mild weather
Swedish forecaster SMHI showed temperatures in the Nordic region averaging close to the norm of 10.2C over the next 10 days, though they will rise to up 5C above normal over the next few days.
Different weather forecasts indicate 1.9-5.6 TWh of hydropower output from rain in Norway and Sweden over the same 10-day period, compared to a norm of 3.3 TWh, according to SMHI.
Further out on the price curve, the 2017 contract last traded flat at EUR 20.65/MWh, in thin trade.
Gert Ove Mollestad
gert@montel.no
14:17, Monday, 9 May 2016